Overall verdict
Buy
6.6/10
1-year performance
-19.25%
Score breakdown
Down 19.3% over 1 year, 25% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Shareholder return 9.5/10. Weakest: Growth 3.6/10.
21 analysts, target +0.3% vs the price.
S.F. Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated logistics services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Express and Large Items, Same-City Instant Delivery, and Supply Chain and International.
It offers time-sensitive and economy express deliveries, as well as international, bulk, cold chain, and pharmaceutical shipping ; same-city instant and last-mile delivery services ; international express delivery, international freight forwarding, agency, and supply chain services, as well as warehousing and distribution services. The company also provides technology services, including smart express delivery, smart life, smart business, and smart supply chain software, as well as smart hardware ;
and supply chain solutions for automotive, technology, industrial equipment, consumer goods, retail food and catering, life sciences and pharmaceuticals, finance and insurance, and government and enterprise services sectors. In addition, it is involved in air cargo and mail transportation ; technical maintenance and development services ; business information and enterprise management consulting ;
value-added telecommunications services ; management of e-commerce industrial parks ; driving services ; factoring business ; financing and wealth management ; retail ; leasing ; property management ; scientific research and technical services ; postal services ; and asset, capital, and investment management. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Air Freight and Logistics
Primary listing
Szse
China
CEO
Wei Wang
Founded
1993
Employees
158 761
Revenue / employee
1.9M CNY
Next earnings
March 29, 2027 (estimated)
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
40.76 CNY
52-week low
30.07 CNY
1-year performance
-19.25%
Declining
Year-to-date performance
-14.64%
Declining
Drawdown
-19.75%
Marked drawdown
Position in the 52-week range
25% of range
Range: 65.23 CNY - 80.10 CNY (2 methods agree)
The price implies growth of -4.39% per year; the company grows at 6.23%.
Gross margin 17.0%, net margin 3.4%, ROIC 8.2%, ROE 11.0%.
Net margin
3.44%
Fair
Sector 3.63%|S&P 13.40%
Gross margin
16.97%
High
Return on equity (ROE)
11.00%
Fair
Sector 9.93%|S&P 17.06%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
8.20%
High
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
4.84%
High
Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)
1.41x
High
Margin stability
1.7 pts
Very steady
Revenue to net income
Growth
3.6/10Revenue up 4.9% over 1 year, 14.9% a year over 5, EPS 6.2% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
321Md CNY
Revenue growth (1y)
4.87%
Moderate
Revenue growth (3y)
15.24%
Solid
EPS growth (1y)
8.06%
Moderate
EPS CAGR (5y)
6.23%
Fair
EPS revisions (3 months)
-10.03%
Sharply revised down
Valuation
6.3/10P/E 15.0x, forward P/E 14.9x, EV/EBITDA 5.7x, PEG 2.40. The multiple sits in the 8th percentile of its own 5-year history.
P/E (TTM)
15.0x
Fair
Sector 19.8x|S&P 23.6x
Forward P/E
14.9x
Fair
EV / EBITDA
5.7x
Fair
Sector 9.5x|S&P 15.5x
PEG
2.40
Very expensive
Sector 0.91|S&P 0.91
Fair value (reverse DCF)
74.66 CNY
Deeply undervalued
P/E vs its own 5-year history
among the 8% lowest valuations
Far cheaper than usual
Market cap
153Md CNY
Financial strength
7.7/10Cash covers 81.2% of the debt, net debt/EBITDA 0.4x.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.4x
Very solid
Gearing (net debt / equity)
11.05%
Stretched
Cash
56.6Md CNY
Cash / market cap
37.02%
Very solid
Cash / total debt
81.23%
Very solid
Interest coverage
17.1x
Very solid
Net debt
13.1Md CNY
Equity
118Md CNY
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on November 11, 2026: 33.11 CNY
- MM2032.53
- MM5031.87
- MM20034.71
- RSI 1454.7
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
-1.72%
200-day average slope, 3 months
-6.04%
50-day average slope, 1 month
-1.47%
Price structure
Lower lows
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
1.69 % per day
Volatility change
+40.17%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.19 (15) | 2.10 (6) | 327 005 (19) | 34 415 (5) | 11 084 (14) |
| 2027 | 2.52 (19) | 2.50 (9) | 355 751 (21) | 36 637 (15) | 12 758 (19) |
Amounts in millions of CNY, EPS in CNY per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of November 2, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 93 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ZTO | 7.7 | 8.3 | 15.5Md USD | 11.2x | 19.0 % | 30.7 % | 14.8 % | -1.1x | — | 7.9 % | ||
| 2 | 002352 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 22.9Md USD | 15.0x | 3.4 % | 4.9 % | 8.2 % | 0.4x | 10.2 % | -19.3 % | ||
| 3 | EXPD | 6.5 | 6.5 | 25.1Md USD | 24.7x | 7.9 % | 41.9 % | 37.6 % | -0.7x | 3.7 % | 38.6 % | ||
| 4 | DHL | 6.0 | 5.8 | 72.9Md USD | 18.0x | 4.3 % | 12.6 % | 8.5 % | 2.3x | 9.1 % | 36.2 % | ||
| 5 | CHRW | 5.9 | 5.1 | 15.5Md USD | 24.0x | 3.7 % | 29.5 % | 20.5 % | 1.4x | 3.4 % | -11.0 % | ||
| 6 | 1519 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 11.9Md USD | 29.9x | 2.5 % | 18.4 % | 5.7 % | 1.2x | 4.5 % | -6.4 % | ||
| 7 | UPS | 5.8 | 6.2 | 95.7Md USD | 21.7x | 4.8 % | 6.7 % | 10.2 % | 1.9x | 6.6 % | 19.9 % | ||
| 8 | FDX | 5.7 | 4.9 | 75.6Md USD | — | 4.1 % | 2.9 % | 8.4 % | 2.7x | — | 57.4 % | ||
| 9 | DSV | 5.0 | 3.9 | 49.8Md USD | 44.7x | 2.7 % | 12.1 % | 4.0 % | 3.2x | 2.7 % | 2.5 % |
