Overall verdict
Sell
3.3/10
1-year performance
-52.96%
Score breakdown
Down 53.0% over 1 year, 3% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Shareholder return 5.1/10. Weakest: Profitability 0.0/10.
7 analysts, target +0.2% vs the price.
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage banking and investment management activities in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Production and Servicing. The Production segment is involved in the origination, acquisition, and sale of loans.
This segment also sources residential conventional and government-insured or guaranteed mortgage loans through correspondent production, consumer direct lending, and broker direct lending. The Servicing segment performs loan administration, collection, and default management activities, including the collection and remittance of loan payments ; responds to customer inquiries ; provides accounting for principal and interest ;
holds custodial funds for the payment of property taxes and insurance premiums ; offers counseling for delinquent borrowers ; and supervising foreclosures and property dispositions, as well as administers loss mitigation activities comprising modification and forbearance programs, and supervising foreclosures and property dispositions. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.
Sector
Financials
Industry
Financial Services
Primary listing
Nyse
United States
CEO
David Spector
Founded
2008
Employees
4 900
Revenue / employee
864 417 USD
Next earnings
February 3, 2027 (estimated)
Institutional holders
- GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC1.47%
- FMR LLC0.88%
- Bank of New York Mellon Corp0.61%
- Rest of the register97.04%
3 13F filings as of September 30, 2026: US managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end. No insiders, no retail. A share on loan is declared by its lender and by whoever bought it from the short seller, so the total can exceed 100%.
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
160.36 USD
52-week low
57.52 USD
1-year performance
-52.96%
Declining
Year-to-date performance
-53.92%
Declining
Drawdown
-62.20%
Major drawdown
Position in the 52-week range
3% of range
Against the world ETF
Over 13 years, from May 2013 to October 2026, the share did not clearly beat the world ETF once risk is accounted for. It earned less, while shaking 2.7 times harder.
$10,000 placed at the end of May 2013 are worth today
| PennyMac Financial | $28,862 |
| World ETF | $41,664 |
| S&P 500 | $58,109 |
| Risk-free placement | $12,833 |
The risk
- Shaking:the share moves 2.7 times as much as the world ETF.
- Worst fall:-64 % between January 2026 and October 2026. $10,000 placed at the top fell to $3,622. The world ETF, at worst: -34 %. The share has not returned to its high yet.
PennyMac Financial earned less than the world ETF since 2013
Value of $10,000 placed at the end of May 2013, dividends reinvested, in dollars
- PennyMac Financial: $28,862
- World ETF: $41,664
- S&P 500: $58,109
- Risk-free placement: $12,833
Share price without dividends; the world ETF and the index reinvest theirs. A dividend payer is therefore understated here.
Based on past performance. This is not a recommendation.
Range: 60.00 USD - 85.00 USD (2 methods agree)
The price implies growth of -1.00% per year; the company grows at -10.00%.
Gross margin 85.0%, net margin 11.7%, ROE 5.6%.
Net margin
11.69%
Low
Sector 24.85%|S&P 13.40%
Gross margin
85.04%
Fair
Return on equity (ROE)
5.59%
Low
Sector 13.50%|S&P 17.06%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
2.24%
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
5.72%
Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)
0.49x
Margin stability
11.3 pts
Very uneven
Revenue to net income
Growth
1.5/10Revenue down 34.1% over 1 year, 0.1% a year over 5, EPS -15.0% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
2.0Md USD
Revenue growth (1y)
-34.08%
Declining
Revenue growth (3y)
55.24%
Strong
EPS growth (1y)
-83.99%
Declining
EPS CAGR (5y)
-14.97%
Declining
EPS revisions (3 months)
-24.77%
Sharply revised down
Valuation
0.6/10P/E 13.6x, forward P/E 14.6x. The multiple sits in the 26th percentile of its own 5-year history.
P/E (TTM)
13.6x
Expensive
Sector 9.4x|S&P 23.6x
Forward P/E
14.6x
Very expensive
EV / EBITDA
—
Sector 23.5x|S&P 15.5x
PEG
—
Sector 0.63|S&P 0.91
Fair value (reverse DCF)
70.75 USD
Undervalued
P/E vs its own 5-year history
among the 26% lowest valuations
Cheaper than usual
Market cap
3.1Md USD
Not scored for a bank or an insurer: its solidity is measured by regulatory capital ratios, which we do not collect.
Net debt / EBITDA
10.0x
Gearing (net debt / equity)
337.40%
Cash
646M USD
Cash / market cap
20.51%
Cash / total debt
4.21%
Interest coverage
1.3x
Net debt
14.7Md USD
Equity
4.4Md USD
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on November 10, 2026: 62.85 USD
- MM2063.11
- MM5064.79
- MM20081.42
- RSI 1446.6
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
-9.32%
200-day average slope, 3 months
-20.56%
50-day average slope, 1 month
-7.72%
Price structure
Lower lows
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
3.10 % per day
Volatility change
+52.47%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.15 (5) | 5.66 (5) | 2 028 (6) | 824 (1) | 206 (4) |
| 2027 | 7.75 (4) | 6.81 (5) | 2 286 (6) | 869 (1) | 413 (4) |
Amounts in millions of USD, EPS in USD per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of November 2, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 39 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RDN | 6.4 | 6.8 | 4.7Md USD | 9.1x | 29.4 % | 105.9 % | — | — | — | 4.9 % | ||
| 2 | MTG | 6.2 | 6.7 | 5.5Md USD | 8.6x | 58.1 % | -1.8 % | — | — | — | -1.9 % | ||
| 3 | ACT | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.2Md USD | 9.6x | 54.1 % | 0.4 % | — | — | — | 23.1 % | ||
| 4 | FNMA | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0Md USD | 20.7x | 9.6 % | -0.3 % | — | — | — | -60.3 % | ||
| 5 | ESNT | 5.7 | 6.2 | 5.7Md USD | 8.9x | 50.0 % | 20.2 % | — | — | — | 4.4 % | ||
| 6 | BAJAJHFL | 4.9 | 4.0 | 7.2Md USD | 24.6x | 23.2 % | 18.0 % | 2.2 % | 10.0x | — | -23.3 % | ||
| 7 | LICHSGFIN | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.2Md USD | 5.4x | 20.6 % | 1.5 % | 1.9 % | 10.0x | — | 0.5 % | ||
| 8 | RKT | 4.2 | 2.9 | 41.0Md USD | 31.5x | 12.7 % | 34.3 % | — | — | — | -16.1 % | ||
| 9 | PFSI | 3.3 | 1.2 | 3.1Md USD | 13.6x | 11.7 % | -34.1 % | — | — | — | -53.0 % |
