Overall verdict
Neutral
6.0/10
1-year performance
-58.65%
Score breakdown
Down 58.7% over 1 year, 15% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Growth 9.4/10. Weakest: Shareholder return 0.0/10.
5 analysts, target -0.1% vs the price.
Federal National Mortgage Association provides financing solutions for residential mortgages in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Single-Family and Multifamily. It offers mortgage acquisitions and securitizations; and credit risk and loss management services.
The company also engages in mortgage securitization transactions, including lender swap, portfolio securitization, and structured securitization transactions; and credit risk and loss management services. Federal National Mortgage Association was incorporated in 1938 and is based in Washington, District Of Columbia.
Sector
Financials
Industry
Financial Services
Primary listing
Lse
United States
CEO
Peter Akwaboah
Founded
1938
Employees
7 000
Revenue / employee
22.9M USD
Next earnings
February 9, 2027 (estimated)
Institutional holders
- CapWealth Advisors, LLC2.24%
- Matthew 25 Management Corp0.04%
- FNY Investment Advisers, LLC0.03%
- Pinnacle Holdings, LLC0.01%
- RNC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC0.01%
- Ratan Capital Management LP0.01%
- IVY LANE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC0.01%
- First National Trust Co0.01%
- Crossingbridge Advisors, LLC0.01%
- Other institutions0.01%
- Rest of the register97.64%
26 13F filings as of June 30, 2026: US managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end. No insiders, no retail. A share on loan is declared by its lender and by whoever bought it from the short seller, so the total can exceed 100%.
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
12.39 USD
52-week low
2.96 USD
1-year performance
-58.65%
Declining
Year-to-date performance
-59.07%
Declining
Drawdown
-64.33%
Major drawdown
Position in the 52-week range
15% of range
Against the world ETF
Over 26 years, from December 2000 to October 2026, the share did not clearly beat the world ETF once risk is accounted for. It earned less, while shaking 7.0 times harder.
$10,000 placed at the end of December 2000 are worth today
| Federal National | $553 |
| World ETF | $65,117 |
| S&P 500 | $91,204 |
| Risk-free placement | $15,894 |
The risk
- Shaking:the share moves 7.0 times as much as the world ETF.
- Worst fall:-100Â % between December 2000 and November 2011. $10,000 placed at the top fell to $23. The world ETF, at worst: -53Â %. The share has not returned to its high yet.
Federal National earned less than the world ETF since 2000
Value of $10,000 placed at the end of December 2000, dividends reinvested, in dollars
- Federal National: $553
- World ETF: $65,117
- S&P 500: $91,204
- Risk-free placement: $15,894
Share price without dividends; the world ETF and the index reinvest theirs. A dividend payer is therefore understated here.
Based on past performance. This is not a recommendation.
Range: 3.94 USD - 5.00 USD (2 methods agree)
The price implies growth of -30.00% per year; the company grows at -10.00%.
Gross margin 97.7%, net margin 51.7%, ROE 13.7%.
Net margin
51.65%
Exceptional
Sector 24.85%|S&P 13.40%
Gross margin
97.69%
High
Return on equity (ROE)
13.69%
Fair
Sector 12.98%|S&P 17.06%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
0.36%
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
13.60%
Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)
0.26x
Margin stability
17.3 pts
Very uneven
Revenue to net income
Growth
9.4/10Revenue down 0.3% over 1 year, 8.0% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
29.8Md USD
Revenue growth (1y)
-0.33%
Declining
Revenue growth (3y)
37.46%
Solid
EPS growth (1y)
—
EPS CAGR (5y)
—
EPS revisions (3 months)
—
Valuation
9.1/10P/E 20.8x, forward P/E 1.6x, PEG 0.00. The multiple sits in the 59th percentile of its own 5-year history.
P/E (TTM)
20.8x
Very expensive
Sector 9.4x|S&P 23.6x
Forward P/E (adjusted)
1.6x
Cheap
EV / EBITDA
—
Sector 21.2x|S&P 15.5x
PEG
0.00
Growth unpriced
Sector 0.63|S&P 0.91
Fair value (reverse DCF)
4.24 USD
Fairly priced
P/E vs its own 5-year history
among the 41% highest valuations
In line with its history
Market cap
5.1Md USD
Not scored for a bank or an insurer: its solidity is measured by regulatory capital ratios, which we do not collect.
Net debt / EBITDA
27.7x
Gearing (net debt / equity)
3454.54%
Cash
36.3Md USD
Cash / market cap
708.40%
Cash / total debt
0.87%
Interest coverage
1.2x
Net debt
4.1T USD
Equity
120Md USD
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on November 11, 2026: 4.43 USD
- MM204.31
- MM504.59
- MM2006.28
- RSI 1449.7
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
-8.78%
200-day average slope, 3 months
-21.68%
50-day average slope, 1 month
-14.56%
Price structure
Lower lows
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
7.92 % per day
Volatility change
+95.52%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.21 (1) | 0.21 (1) | 29 655 (3) | — | 1 254 (1) |
| 2027 | 0.00 (2) | 0.00 (2) | 29 868 (5) | — | 0 (1) |
Amounts in millions of USD, EPS in USD per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of November 2, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 39 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RDN | 6.4 | 6.8 | 4.7Md USD | 9.1x | 29.4 % | 105.9 % | — | — | — | 4.9 % | ||
| 2 | MTG | 6.2 | 6.7 | 5.5Md USD | 8.6x | 58.1 % | -1.8 % | — | — | — | -1.9 % | ||
| 3 | ACT | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.2Md USD | 9.6x | 54.1 % | 0.4 % | — | — | — | 23.1 % | ||
| 4 | FNMA | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.1Md USD | 20.8x | 51.7 % | -0.3 % | — | — | — | -58.7 % | ||
| 5 | ESNT | 5.7 | 6.2 | 5.7Md USD | 8.9x | 50.0 % | 20.2 % | — | — | — | 4.4 % | ||
| 6 | BAJAJHFL | 4.9 | 4.0 | 7.2Md USD | 24.6x | 23.2 % | 18.0 % | 2.2 % | 10.0x | — | -23.3 % | ||
| 7 | LICHSGFIN | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.2Md USD | 5.4x | 20.6 % | 1.5 % | 1.9 % | 10.0x | — | 0.5 % | ||
| 8 | RKT | 4.2 | 2.9 | 41.0Md USD | 31.5x | 12.7 % | 34.3 % | — | — | — | -16.1 % | ||
| 9 | PFSI | 3.1 | 1.0 | 3.2Md USD | 14.0x | 5.5 % | -34.1 % | — | — | — | -51.5 % |
