Overall verdict
Neutral
4.4/10
1-year performance
-34.03%
Score breakdown
Down 34.0% over 1 year, 30% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Profitability 6.5/10. Weakest: Growth 1.5/10.
30 analysts, target +0.0% vs the price.
Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company provides various merchandise, including livestock and equine feed and equipment, poultry, fencing, and sprayers and chemicals ; companion animal products, such as food, treats, and equipment for dogs, cats, and other small animals, as well as dog wellness products ; seasonal and recreation products comprising tractors and riders, lawn and garden, bird feeding, power equipment, and other recreational products ;
truck, tool, and hardware products, such as truck accessories, trailers, generators, lubricants, batteries, and hardware and tools ; and clothing, gift, and décor products consist of clothing, footwear, toys, snacks, and decorative merchandise. It offers its products under the 4health, Paws & Claws, American Farmworks, Producer's Pride, Bit & Bridle, Red Shed, Blue Mountain, Redstone, C.E. Schmidt, Retriever, Country Lane, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Country Tuff, Strive, Dumor, Traveller, Farm Table, Treeline, Groundwork, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Huskee, Untamed, JobSmart, and Impeckable brand names.
The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Petsense by Tractor Supply, and Orscheln Farm and Home names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. Tractor Supply Company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.
Sector
Consumer Discretionary
Industry
Specialty Retail
Primary listing
Nasdaq
United States
CEO
Harry Lawton
Founded
1938
Employees
52 000
Revenue / employee
298 539 USD
Next earnings
January 28, 2027 (estimated)
Institutional holders
- GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC3.02%
- Bank of New York Mellon Corp0.61%
- FMR LLC0.47%
- Rest of the register95.90%
3 13F filings as of September 30, 2026: US managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end. No insiders, no retail. A share on loan is declared by its lender and by whoever bought it from the short seller, so the total can exceed 100%.
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
56.94 USD
52-week low
28.36 USD
1-year performance
-34.03%
Declining
Year-to-date performance
-26.23%
Declining
Drawdown
-35.26%
Major drawdown
Position in the 52-week range
30% of range
Against the world ETF
Over 26 years, from December 2000 to October 2026, the share did better than the world ETF once risk is accounted for.
$10,000 placed at the end of December 2000 are worth today
| Tractor Supply | $3,982,103 |
| World ETF | $65,117 |
| S&P 500 | $91,204 |
| Risk-free placement | $15,894 |
The risk
- Shaking:the share moves 2.5 times as much as the world ETF.
- Worst fall:-56 % between March 2006 and June 2008. $10,000 placed at the top fell to $4,377. The world ETF, at worst: -53 %. Back to its high in 22 months.
Tractor Supply earned 61 times as much as the world ETF since 2000
Value of $10,000 placed at the end of December 2000, dividends reinvested, in dollars
- Tractor Supply: $3,982,103
- World ETF: $65,117
- S&P 500: $91,204
- Risk-free placement: $15,894
Based on past performance. This is not a recommendation.
Range: 42.10 USD - 43.00 USD (2 methods agree)
The price implies growth of 20.70% per year; the company grows at 10.06%.
Gross margin 33.0%, net margin 6.1%, ROIC 11.7%, ROE 37.3%.
Net margin
6.13%
Fair
Sector 5.19%|S&P 13.40%
Gross margin
33.00%
Fair
Return on equity (ROE)
37.35%
Exceptional
Sector 15.63%|S&P 17.06%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
11.65%
High
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
1.82%
Low
Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)
0.30x
Low
Margin stability
0.6 pts
Very steady
Revenue to net income
Growth
1.5/10Revenue up 5.1% over 1 year, 7.9% a year over 5, EPS 10.1% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
15.9Md USD
Revenue growth (1y)
5.15%
Moderate
Revenue growth (3y)
9.29%
Moderate
EPS growth (1y)
-11.58%
Declining
EPS CAGR (5y)
10.06%
Fair
EPS revisions (3 months)
2.89%
Revised up
Valuation
3.1/10P/E 19.8x, forward P/E 19.6x, EV/EBITDA 10.5x, PEG 1.97. The multiple sits in the 13th percentile of its own 5-year history.
P/E (TTM)
19.8x
Fair
Sector 18.0x|S&P 23.6x
Forward P/E
19.6x
Expensive
EV / EBITDA
10.5x
Expensive
Sector 8.6x|S&P 15.5x
PEG
1.97
Expensive
Sector 0.95|S&P 0.91
Fair value (reverse DCF)
42.96 USD
Undervalued
P/E vs its own 5-year history
among the 13% lowest valuations
Far cheaper than usual
Market cap
19.1Md USD
Financial strength
3.3/10Cash covers 3.0% of the debt, net debt/EBITDA 2.9x.
Net debt / EBITDA
2.9x
Tight
Gearing (net debt / equity)
245.11%
Stretched
Cash
199M USD
Cash / market cap
1.04%
Stretched
Cash / total debt
2.96%
Stretched
Interest coverage
18.6x
Very solid
Net debt
6.5Md USD
Equity
2.7Md USD
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on November 10, 2026: 37.50 USD
- MM2034.23
- MM5033.48
- MM20037.52
- RSI 1468.3
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
-4.61%
200-day average slope, 3 months
-13.84%
50-day average slope, 1 month
-0.76%
Price structure
higher-low
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
2.80 % per day
Volatility change
+36.62%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.88 (10) | 1.95 (30) | 16 068 (28) | 1 904 (21) | 999 (14) |
| 2027 | 2.06 (15) | 2.06 (29) | 16 691 (28) | 1 996 (21) | 1 054 (16) |
Amounts in millions of USD, EPS in USD per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of November 3, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 76 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FIVE | 6.9 | 6.5 | 13.8Md USD | 22.5x | 11.7 % | 22.9 % | 15.8 % | 1.7x | 4.3 % | 66.9 % | ||
| 2 | 1929 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 15.2Md USD | 13.3x | 9.5 % | 5.3 % | 27.5 % | 1.0x | 0.4 % | -18.7 % | ||
| 3 | ULTA | 6.3 | 6.4 | 28.2Md USD | 24.0x | 9.3 % | 8.9 % | 27.4 % | 0.9x | 4.1 % | 28.0 % | ||
| 4 | 9992 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 24.6Md USD | 12.9x | 32.7 % | 184.8 % | 62.9 % | -0.8x | 4.2 % | -36.1 % | ||
| 5 | NYKAA | 5.8 | 5.2 | 11.0Md USD | 318.7x | 2.9 % | 28.1 % | 17.5 % | 1.1x | — | 37.2 % | ||
| 6 | LENSKART | 5.6 | 4.5 | 13.3Md USD | 162.7x | 7.5 % | 35.7 % | 7.7 % | -0.4x | — | 76.8 % | ||
| 7 | 601888 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 15.6Md USD | 25.5x | 8.0 % | -4.7 % | 6.7 % | -5.2x | 3.4 % | -42.6 % | ||
| 8 | DKS | 4.5 | 4.2 | 13.3Md USD | 16.1x | 4.0 % | 53.2 % | 8.3 % | 3.5x | 1.8 % | -31.8 % | ||
| 9 | TSCO | 4.4 | 3.9 | 19.1Md USD | 19.8x | 6.1 % | 5.1 % | 11.7 % | 2.9x | 1.5 % | -34.0 % |
