Overall verdict
Neutral
4.9/10
1-year performance
-65.04%
Score breakdown
Down 65.0% over 1 year, 12% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Profitability 10.0/10. Weakest: Growth 3.8/10.
35 analysts, target -0.1% vs the price.
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices. It provides data and other value-added services. It serves advertising agencies, advertisers, and other service providers for agencies or advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.
Sector
Communication Services
Industry
Media
Primary listing
Nasdaq
United States
CEO
Jeffrey Green
Founded
2009
Employees
3 843
Revenue / employee
753 652 USD
Next earnings
February 17, 2027 (estimated)
Institutional holders
- GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC2.67%
- Bank of New York Mellon Corp0.51%
- FMR LLC0.02%
- Rest of the register96.80%
3 13F filings as of September 30, 2026: US managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end. No insiders, no retail. A share on loan is declared by its lender and by whoever bought it from the short seller, so the total can exceed 100%.
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
45.50 USD
52-week low
11.62 USD
1-year performance
-65.04%
Declining
Year-to-date performance
-58.91%
Declining
Drawdown
-65.51%
Major drawdown
Position in the 52-week range
12% of range
Against the world ETF
Over 10 years, from September 2016 to October 2026, the share did not clearly beat the world ETF once risk is accounted for. It earned more, but shaking 5.1 times harder: for the risk taken, the ETF paid better.
$10,000 placed at the end of September 2016 are worth today
| The Trade Desk | $42,058 |
| World ETF | $33,454 |
| S&P 500 | $40,912 |
| Risk-free placement | $12,792 |
The risk
- Shaking:the share moves 5.1 times as much as the world ETF.
- Worst fall:-91Â % between December 2024 and October 2026. $10,000 placed at the top fell to $854. The world ETF, at worst: -34Â %. The share has not returned to its high yet.
The Trade Desk earned more than the world ETF since 2016
Value of $10,000 placed at the end of September 2016, dividends reinvested, in dollars
- The Trade Desk: $42,058
- World ETF: $33,454
- S&P 500: $40,912
- Risk-free placement: $12,792
Share price without dividends; the world ETF and the index reinvest theirs. A dividend payer is therefore understated here.
Based on past performance. This is not a recommendation.
Range: 19.89 USD - 20.00 USD (3 methods agree)
The price implies growth of -6.22% per year; the company grows at 12.67%.
Quality and profitability
10.0/10Gross margin 75.7%, net margin 11.0%, ROIC 10.8%, ROE 12.4%.
Net margin
11.03%
Exceptional
Sector 1.14%|S&P 13.40%
Gross margin
75.70%
Exceptional
Return on equity (ROE)
12.42%
Exceptional
Sector 2.37%|S&P 17.06%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
10.80%
Exceptional
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
28.87%
Exceptional
Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)
2.62x
Exceptional
Margin stability
6.5 pts
Uneven
Revenue to net income
Growth
3.8/10Revenue down 0.5% over 1 year, 28.2% a year over 5, EPS 12.7% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
3.0Md USD
Revenue growth (1y)
-0.47%
Declining
Revenue growth (3y)
83.57%
Strong
EPS growth (1y)
-65.49%
Declining
EPS CAGR (5y)
12.67%
Strong
EPS revisions (3 months)
10.29%
Sharply revised up
Valuation
5.0/10P/E 22.8x, forward P/E 35.4x, EV/EBITDA 9.9x, PEG 1.80. The multiple sits in the 7th percentile of its own 5-year history.
P/E (TTM)
22.8x
Fair
Sector 31.5x|S&P 23.6x
Forward P/E
35.4x
Expensive
EV / EBITDA
9.9x
Fair
Sector 9.2x|S&P 15.5x
PEG
1.80
Expensive
Sector 0.78|S&P 0.91
Fair value (reverse DCF)
19.95 USD
Undervalued
P/E vs its own 5-year history
among the 7% lowest valuations
Far cheaper than usual
Market cap
7.4Md USD
Financial strength
10.0/10Cash covers 283.8% of the debt, net debt/EBITDA -1.2x.
Net debt / EBITDA
-1.2x
Net cash
Gearing (net debt / equity)
-39.53%
Net cash
Cash
1.6Md USD
Cash / market cap
22.23%
Very solid
Cash / total debt
283.79%
Net cash
Interest coverage
243.5x
Very solid
Net debt
-1.1Md USD
Equity
2.7Md USD
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on November 10, 2026: 15.42 USD
- MM2012.97
- MM5013.13
- MM20019.30
- RSI 1470.7
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
-11.66%
200-day average slope, 3 months
-30.69%
50-day average slope, 1 month
-4.74%
Price structure
Lower lows
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
4.64 % per day
Volatility change
+31.38%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.44 (21) | 1.28 (18) | 2 895 (25) | 964 (20) | 237 (9) |
| 2027 | 0.40 (24) | 1.08 (20) | 2 654 (36) | 741 (25) | 168 (13) |
Amounts in millions of USD, EPS in USD per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of November 12, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 80 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PUB | 7.4 | 7.5 | 28.9Md USD | 16.3x | 9.2 % | 8.5 % | 10.8 % | 0.5x | 9.8 % | 23.7 % | ||
| 2 | INF | 7.0 | 6.7 | 15.5Md USD | 50.9x | 5.4 % | 13.7 % | 2.5 % | 2.5x | 7.1 % | -11.8 % | ||
| 3 | APP | 6.8 | 7.4 | 134Md USD | 27.2x | 65.9 % | 55.5 % | 85.0 % | 0.2x | 3.7 % | -37.5 % | ||
| 4 | DEC | 6.5 | 7.1 | 6.5Md USD | 18.0x | 8.7 % | 1.1 % | 5.9 % | 2.0x | 16.2 % | 85.5 % | ||
| 5 | 002027 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 12.2Md USD | 24.2x | 25.8 % | -8.6 % | 19.4 % | -0.6x | 9.0 % | -31.8 % | ||
| 6 | OMC | 6.2 | 7.2 | 24.3Md USD | 49.4x | 2.8 % | 59.1 % | 4.6 % | 1.5x | 11.8 % | 21.3 % | ||
| 7 | 4324 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 6.3Md USD | Not meaningful (loss) | -14.1 % | 6.3 % | -24.2 % | 1.6x | 14.5 % | 18.6 % | ||
| 8 | 300058 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 7.1Md USD | 157.7x | 0.5 % | -1.1 % | 4.1 % | -9.4x | 1.0 % | 89.7 % | ||
| 9 | TTD | 4.9 | 7.0 | 7.4Md USD | 22.8x | 11.0 % | -0.5 % | 10.8 % | -1.2x | 11.6 % | -65.0 % |
