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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

13 markets
Volume
$1.3M
24h Vol
+$5K
Liquidity
$782K
Resolution
Thu, Dec 31, 2026

Tags

BusinessFed RatesJerome PowellEconomic PolicyFedEconomyFinance
View on Polymarket

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

13 markets
Volume
$1.3M
24h Vol
+$5K
Liquidity
$782K
Resolution
Thu, Dec 31, 2026

Tags

BusinessFed RatesJerome PowellEconomic PolicyFedEconomyFinance
View on Polymarket

Markets (13)

YES
Ask
SharesTotal
No asks
Spread—
No bids
Bid
SharesTotal
Vol: $128K
Liq: $63K
+$2K 24h

Description

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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Outcome
Volume
24h
Chance
2 (50 bps)
$128K
+$2K
23.0%
3 (75 bps)
$88K
+$65
19.5%
4 (100 bps)
$71K
—
16.5%
5 (125 bps)
$111K
+$207
10.5%
1 (25 bps)
$127K
+$125
9.5%
6 (150 bps)
$110K
+$282
7.5%
7 (175 bps)
$67K
+$38
3.9%
0 (0 bps)
$134K
+$271
3.4%
12+ (300+ bps)
$104K
+$102
3.3%
8 (200 bps)
$96K
+$871
3.1%
9 (225 bps)
$67K
+$13
1.0%
10 (250 bps)
$70K
+$560
0.9%
11 (275 bps)
$87K
+$400
0.8%
5 pinned

Description

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
2 (50 bps)
1H
—
24H
+1.0%
7D
+4.0%
30D
+9.5%
Order Book
YES
Ask
SharesTotal
No asks
Spread—
No bids
Bid
SharesTotal
1H
—
24H
+1.0%
7D
+4.0%
30D
+9.5%
Order Book
NO
Ask
SharesTotal
No asks
Spread—
No bids
Bid
SharesTotal
Volume
$128K
24h Vol
+$2K
Liquidity
$63K