This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public.
This market will resolve to "No release by January 31" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.20 released on...?
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Outcome
Volume
24h
Chance
No release by January 31
$28K
+$6K
80.8%
January 21
$5K
+$734
4.7%
January 30
$6K
+$1K
3.5%
January 23
$6K
+$979
3.2%
January 31
$4K
+$887
2.8%
January 22
$4K
+$1K
2.6%
January 24
$5K
+$953
2.3%
January 19
$9K
+$3K
2.1%
January 28
$6K
+$2K
2.1%
January 20
$9K
+$2K
1.8%
January 25
$5K
+$680
1.2%
January 18
$5K
+$469
1.1%
January 27
$6K
+$1K
0.9%
January 29
$5K
+$342
0.7%
January 26
$5K
+$292
0.5%
January 5NO
$16K
—
0.0%
January 6NO
$5K
—
0.0%
January 9NO
$5K
—
0.0%
January 10NO
$17K
—
0.0%
January 13NO
$5K
—
0.0%
January 15NO
$10K
—
0.0%
December 29NO
$320
—
0.0%
December 30NO
$8K
—
0.0%
December 31NO
$4K
—
0.0%
January 1NO
$8K
—
0.0%
January 2NO
$4K
—
0.0%
January 3NO
$10K
—
0.0%
January 4NO
$15K
—
0.0%
January 7NO
$16K
—
0.0%
January 8NO
$15K
—
0.0%
January 11NO
$12K
—
0.0%
January 12NO
$12K
—
0.0%
January 14NO
$3K
—
0.0%
January 16NO
$14K
—
0.0%
January 17NO
$17K
+$14K
0.0%
5 pinned
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public.
This market will resolve to "No release by January 31" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.