This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini 3 model achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Gemini 3 score on FrontierMath Benchmark by January 31?
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Outcome
Volume
24h
Chance
40%+
$114K
+$2K
77.5%
50%+
$95K
+$43K
13.5%
60%+
$50K
+$5
7.0%
70%+
$54K
—
4.2%
4 pinned
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini 3 model achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.